August Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside

The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of 53,000 and representing a sharp improvement from the subdued pace of hiring earlier this summer. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, continuing to signal a generally healthy labor market. In addition, previously reported employment figures were revised higher, with July…

Fed Holds Steady for a Fifth Meeting as Inflation Risks Resurface

Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The Committee voted 9-3 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.50% – 3.75%. Again, the Committee provided minimal forward guidance. The Investment Committee was not surprised by today’s decision to leave policy unchanged. The economic outlook remains murky,…

June Jobs Report: Cooling Labor Market Signals Shift in Fed Outlook

The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, falling short of the consensus estimate of 113,000 and the blowout 172,000 jobs created in May (downwardly revised to 129,000).  Additionally, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%. While labor market conditions have remained surprisingly resilient throughout the first half of the year, today’s data represents a cooling…

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Warsh Era Begins: Is Monetary Policy Losing Its Edge?

In a widely anticipated decision, the FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target in a range of 3.50% – 3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting.   Although today’s vote was unanimous, forward guidance implies a split consensus as to the interest rate path for the remainder of the year. Nine officials now…

May Jobs Report

The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above the consensus estimate of 85,000 and the 115,000 jobs created in April, signaling a reacceleration in labor market growth. Additionally, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, indicating that labor market conditions continue to be more resilient than many economists had anticipated and remain near the…